关于锂的供需，我贴一段LUX的研究内容：
The Ultimate Limit on Light EV Adoption May Be Lithium Supply
The limiting factor to light EV sales might not be automakers’ R&D progress in manufacturing capacity, but the supply of lithium, because:
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Lithium is the dominant technology for light EVs. Nearly every light EV market participant has pinned its development on advanced lithium-ion batteries from the likes of Compact Power and A123Systems, batteries which combine high energy density with long cycle life as well as resistance to thermal runaway.
Each kWh of capacity in these batteries requires about 1.5 kg of lithium, a relatively scarce metal. The lone holdout appears to be Toyota Motor, which is reportedly focusing internal R&D on a zinc-air battery because of safety concerns about Li-ion.
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Today’s lithium supply is limited. Only lithium carbonate derived from brine lakes and salt pans is suitable for making Li-ion batteries. Global brine production stood at about 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2006, highly concentrated with only four producers – SQM and Chemetall in Chile, Qinghai CITIC Guoan Sci-Tech Development in China, and Admiralty Resources in Argentina.
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Our various outcomes require between 1.9% and 42% of lithium production capacity in 2012, up from 0.002% today.
Assuming conservative average capacities of 1.3 kWh for HEVs, 3.9 kWh for PHEVs, and 19.5 kWh for EVs, 3,747 tons of lithium carbonate will be needed for light EVs in 2012 in our most likely scenario (see Figure 3). That’s 6.2% of annual lithium carbonate production in the most recent year on record, enough to move commodity prices significantly unless production expanded a great deal, especially with high growth for Li-ionbatteries outside of transportation applications. Even our low scenario would consume 1,141 tons, or 1.9% of capacity. But it’s our high scenario that should raise eyebrows: If that chain of events occurred, light EVs would need a whopping 25,090 tons of lithium carbonate, or 42% of what’s produced annually – a number that couldn’t possibly be met without unprecedented lithium exploration in the next three years, at least not without dramatically increasing prices to the extent that Li-ion-powered light EVs would themselves become economically untenable.
具体就不翻译了。
作者对于锂有供应担忧。我的看法是，LUX的研究人员对于锂的供应分析的过于简单。比如
中信国安，根本就没有经济化的碳酸锂供应；全球的供应也不止6万吨；而且，SQM的扩产非常容易，只需要读读SQM年报就知道了。所以，我不是很认可LUX关于碳酸锂的结论。
hayek
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