对冲美元和美债信用崩溃的最佳对冲工具是什么？

高盛 ——为什么投资者应该用黄金和其他大宗商品进行对冲

投资进阶之路
2025-10-15 14:23上海
关注
AI导读
听全文约19分钟

Overhead photo of tankers carrying liquified natural gas and oil

To protect portfolios of stocks and bonds against unexpected tail risks in financial markets, investors should consider diversifying through gold as well as a range of other commodities, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
高盛研究部表示，为了保护股票和债券投资组合免受金融市场意外尾部风险的影响，投资者应考虑通过黄金以及一系列其他大宗商品进行多元化投资。

Equity-bond portfolios aren’t well protected against stagnant economic growth and elevated inflation in two situations in particular: when global policy uncertainty is elevated (e.g., markets debating the central bank’s ability to contain inflation) and when the economy is hit by a supply shock (such as a sudden interruption in energy supplies).
特别是在两种情况下，股票债券投资组合无法很好地抵御经济增长停滞和通胀上升的影响：当全球政策不确定性加剧时（例如，市场争论央行遏制通胀的能力）和经济受到供应冲击（例如能源供应突然中断）时。

What is the best investment to protect against tail risks?
防范尾部风险的最佳投资是什么？

For example, gold prices jumped in the 1970s as pronounced spending by the US government and reduced central bank credibility stoked inflation. “Gold surged as investors sought value outside the system,” Goldman Sachs Research analyst Lina Thomas writes in the team’s report.
例如，由于美国政府的显著支出和央行信誉下降加剧了通货膨胀，金价在 1970 年代飙升。“随着投资者在系统外寻求价值，黄金飙升，” 高盛研究分析师莉娜·托马斯在该团队的报告中写道。

More recently, commodities were among the few assets to rise (in inflation adjusted terms) when Russia cut its gas flows to Europe in 2022. During any 12-month period when both stocks and bonds had negative real returns, either commodities or gold delivered positive performance, according to Goldman Sachs Research.
最近，当俄罗斯在 2022 年削减对欧洲的天然气供应时，大宗商品是少数上涨的资产之一（按通胀调整后计算）。根据高盛研究部的数据，在任何 12 个月期间，当股票和债券的实际回报均为负时，大宗商品或黄金都取得了积极的表现。

During any 12-month period when stocks and bonds had negative returns, either commodities or gold delivered positive real returns
在股票和债券出现负回报的任何 12 个月期间，大宗商品或黄金都带来了正的实际回报

Real returns, 12-month rolling
实际回报，12 个月滚动


图片

Commodities can protect portfolios against trade volatility
大宗商品可以保护投资组合免受交易波动的影响

Thomas points out that commodity supplies are becoming more concentrated and countries are using their control over resources as geopolitical leverage. Commodities are likely to have a more strategic role going forward, according to Goldman Sachs Research, with government control fluctuating in a four-step cycle:
托马斯指出，大宗商品供应正变得更加集中，各国正在利用对资源的控制作为地缘政治筹码。根据高盛研究部的数据，大宗商品未来可能会发挥更具战略性的作用，政府控制在四步周期中波动：

Governments insulate supply chains by reshoring production through tariffs, subsidies, and investment—replacing imports where possible and stockpiling commodities where it’s not
政府通过关税、补贴和投资回流生产来隔离供应链—— 在可能的情况下取代进口商品，在没有进口的情况下储存商品

Once domestic supply expands and is secured, surplus production is exported
一旦国内供应扩大并得到保障，剩余产品就会出口

As global commodity prices fall, higher-cost producers exit, and supply concentrates among fewer producers
随着全球大宗商品价格下跌，成本较高的生产商退出，供应集中在更少的生产商身上

As supply consolidates, dominant producers are able to use it as geopolitical and economic leverage via tools such as export restrictions—raising disruption risk and eventually prompting other countries to again insulate their supply chains
随着供应的整合，主要生产商能够通过出口限制等工具将其用作地缘政治和经济杠杆 ，从而增加中断风险，并最终促使其他国家再次隔离其供应链

There are several examples of commodity and resource concentration taking place now. The US is likely to provide more than a third of the global supply of liquified natural gas (LNG) by 2030, and the country has linked those exports to tariff negotiations. Europe, in particular, has shifted toward US LNG and away from Russian gas since 2022. The share of gas supplies provided by the US in Europe and Asia is expected to climb further.
现在有几个商品和资源集中的例子。到 2030 年，美国可能会提供全球液化天然气 （LNG） 供应量的三分之一以上，该国已将这些出口与关税谈判联系起来。尤其是欧洲，自 2022 年以来，它已转向美国液化天然气，远离俄罗斯天然气。美国在欧洲和亚洲提供的天然气供应份额预计将进一步攀升。

China, meanwhile, controls more than 90% of the refining capacity for rare earth minerals. These elements are essential in the race to develop artificial intelligence (AI).
与此同时，中国控制着 90%以上的稀土矿产精炼能力。这些要素对于人工智能 （AI） 的发展竞赛至关重要。

Globalization has stalled since 2008
自2008年以来，全球化停滞不前

Global goods trade as a share of GDP: World trade openness, % of GDP
全球货物贸易占 GDP 比重：世界贸易开放度，占 GDP 的百分比


图片

“The growing use of commodities as leverage may reinforce the diversification benefits of commodities in portfolios,” Thomas writes.
“越来越多地使用大宗商品作为杠杆可能会加强大宗商品在投资组合中的多元化优势，”托马斯写道。

Which commodities are best for hedging portfolios?
哪些商品最适合对冲投资组合？

Not all commodities create an equal hedge for portfolios. Determining their effectiveness requires understanding if a particular commodity is likely to be part of a critical supply disruption and whether that disruption is inflationary, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Two criteria must be considered: the commodity’s direct or indirect weight in the inflation basket, and the share of supply being disrupted.
并非所有商品都能为投资组合提供同等的对冲。根据高盛研究部的数据，确定其有效性需要了解特定商品是否可能成为严重供应中断的一部分，以及这种中断是否会导致通货膨胀。必须考虑两个标准：商品在通胀篮子中的直接或间接权重，以及供应中扰的份额。

Energy, for example, meets the first criteria, as disruptions can rapidly impact economies and financial markets. The direct weight in the inflation basket of industrial metals and rare earth minerals ranks lower, though their influence has been rising as the energy mix shifts from fossil fuels to renewables that use these commodities. Industrial metals and rare earths stand out because refining is highly concentrated in China. As a result, even with only an indirect impact on inflation—such as the cost of electric vehicle batteries—a disruption could have an outsized effect.
例如，能源符合第一个标准，因为中断会迅速影响经济和金融市场。工业金属和稀土矿产在通胀篮子中的直接权重排名较低，尽管随着能源结构从化石燃料转向使用这些商品的可再生能源，它们的影响力一直在上升。工业金属和稀土之所以脱颖而出，是因为炼油高度集中在中国。因此，即使对通货膨胀只有间接影响（例如电动汽车电池的成本），中断也可能产生巨大的影响。