(40)”If you have only a little capital and are young today, there are fewer opportunities than when I was young. Back then, we had just come out of a depression. Capitalism was a bad word. There had been abuses in the 1920s. A joke going around then was the guy who said, ‘I bought stock for my old age and it worked — in six months, I feel like an old man!’ “It’s tougher for you, but that doesn’t mean you won’t do well — it just may take more time. But what the heck, you may live longer.”
40，如果今天你的资本较少并且年轻，你的机会比我们那时候要少。我们年轻的时候刚走出大萧条，资本主义那时候是一个贬义词，在20年代对资本主义的批判更是肆虐。那时候流行一个笑话：有个人说“我买股票是为老了的时候考虑，没想到六个月就用上了！我现在已经觉得自己是老人了。”你们的环境更加艰难，但并不意味着你们做不好 --- 只是要多花些时间。但是去他娘的，你们还可能活的更长呢。
(41)”Regarding the demographic trend called Baby Boomers, it’s peanuts compared to the trend of economic growth.? Over the last century, [our] GNP is up seven times.? This was not caused by Baby Boomers, but by the general success of capitalism and the march of technology.? Those trends were so favorable that little blips in the birth rate were not that significant.??We can keep social peace as long as GNP rises 3% annually – this can pay for spending by politicians.? If we ever got to stasis [no growth], then with all the promises, you’d get real tensions between the generations.? The Baby Boomers would exacerbate it, but the real cause would be lack of growth.”
41，关于所谓“婴儿潮（美国5、60年代出生）”的人口学现象，其影响相对经济增长的影响来说小很多。过去的一个世纪，美国的GNP（国民生产总值）增长了7倍。这不是婴儿潮导致的，而是由美国资本主义的成功和技术的发展带来的。这两样东西的影响太利好，婴儿潮问题相比之下就是一个小波动。只要美国的GNP每年增长3%，就能保持社会和平 --- 足以覆盖政客们的花销。如果美国的发展停滞了，我敢保证，你们将会见证真切的代沟，不同代的人之间关系会很紧张。婴儿潮是这种紧张的催化剂，但是根本原因还是经济不增长。
(42)”Practically everybody overweighs the stuff that can be numbered, because it yields to the statistical techniques they’re taught in academia, and doesn’t mix in the hard-to-measure stuff that may be more important. That is a mistake I’ve tried all my life to avoid, and I have no regrets for having done that.”
42，实际上，每个人都会把可以量化的东西看得过重，因为他们想“发扬”自己在学校里面学的统计技巧，于是忽略了那些虽然无法量化但是更加重要的东西。我一生都致力于避免这种错误，我觉得我这么干挺不错的。
(43)”You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines, and use them routinely — all of them, not just a few. Most people are trained in one model — economics, for example — and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the old saying: to the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a dumb way of handling problems.”
43，你应该对各种学科的各种思维都有所理解，并且经常使用它们 --- 它们的全部，而不是某几个。大部分人都熟练于使用某一个单一的模型，比如经济学模型，去解决所有的问题。应了一句老话：“拿锤子的木匠，看书上的字儿就觉着像钉子。” 这是一种很白痴的做事方法。
(44)”The whole concept of dividing it up into ‘value’ and ‘growth’ strikes me as twaddle. It’s convenient for a bunch of pension fund consultants to get fees prattling about and a way for one advisor to distinguish himself from another. But, to me, all intelligent investing is value investing.”
44，对于我而言，把股票分成“价值股”和“成长股”就是瞎搞。这种分法可以让基金经理们借以夸夸其谈、也可以让分析师们给自己贴个标签，但是在我眼中，所有靠谱的投资都是价值投资。
(45)”In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time – none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads, at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”
45，我这一辈子认识的所有智者，没有不爱看书的。我和巴菲特看书之多都能吓着你。我的孩子取笑我说我就是一本抻出两条腿的书。
(46)”We read a lot.? I don’t know anyone who’s wise who doesn’t read a lot.? But that’s not enough: You have to have a temperament to grab ideas and do sensible things.? Most people don’t grab the right ideas or don’t know what to do with them.”
46，我们都爱大量阅读，聪明人都这样，但这还不够，你还应该有一种批判接受、合理应用的态度。大部分人看书都没有抓到正确的重点，看完了又不会学以致用。
(47)”We get these questions a lot from the enterprising young. It’s a very intelligent question: You look at some old guy who’s rich and you ask, ‘How can I become like you, except faster?”
47，我们经常从那些上进的孩子们那儿听到这些问题。这是个很“聪明”的问题，你对着一个有钱老头问：“我怎么才能成为你呢？怎么才能迅速地成为你呢？”
(48)”It takes almost no capital to open a new See’s candy store. We’re drowning in capital of our own that has almost no cost. It would be crazy to franchise stores like some capital-starved pancake house. We like owning our own stores as a matter of quality control”
48，我们如果要再开一家See‘s糖果几乎不用花费任何资本。我们的资本太多了都快淹死我们了，所以几乎是零成本。对于有些极度缺钱的煎饼店，增设特许经营店简直是疯狂的事情。我们喜欢搞直营店以便更好地控制服务品质。
(49)”It’s dangerous to short stocks.”
49，做空行为是很危险的。
(50)”Being short and seeing a promoter take the stock up is very irritating. It’s not worth it to have that much irritation in your life.”
50，坐在空头位置，又看到股价遇到利好大涨，这是一件特别让人气愤的事情。人生苦短，遭受这种气愤太不值当了。
(51)”It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then at have it go from X to 3X and and have the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls. Why would you want to go within hailing distance of that?”
51，世界上最郁闷的事情之一，就是你费尽力气发现了一个骗局（并且做空这个公司），但是眼睁睁地看着股价继续疯涨三倍，而且这些骗子们拿着你的钱弹冠相庆，而且你还要收到证券行的
保证金追加通知。像这种郁闷的事情你哪能去碰呢？
(52)”…the cost of being a publicly traded stock has gone way, way up. It doesn’t make sense for a little company to be public anymore. A lot of little companies are going private to be rid of these burdensome requirements….”?
52，上市的代价已经变得非常高了。一个小公司谋求上市是没有什么道理的。很多小公司正在走私有化的路子以此摆脱上市公司的繁冗负担。
(53)”Well the open-outcry auction is just made to turn the brain into mush: you’ve got social proof, the other guy is bidding, you get reciprocation tendency, you get deprival super-reaction syndrome, the thing is going away… I mean it just absolutely is designed to manipulate people into idiotic behavior.”
53，公开叫价的竞价方式就是设计来让人的脑子变成一锅粥的：由于别人也在叫价，你觉得（你的竞价）得到了社会认同，你会有一种回馈倾向，会陷入一种“被剥夺超级反应综合症”，觉得（必须想方设法阻止）你的“心头好”离你而去……总之我的意思就是这种方式就是设计来操纵人的心理的，让人们去做白痴的事情。
(54)”The problem with closed bid auctions is that they are frequently won by people making a technical mistake, as in the case with Shell paying double for Belridge Oil. You can’t pay double the losing bid in an open outcry auction.”
54，暗标竞价的问题在于标的物常常被那些犯了技术错误的一方赢得，比如壳牌石油支付给贝利奇石油的价格是（另一方的）两倍。在公开叫价的竞标中，你就不可能比输掉的那一方多付一倍的价钱。
(55)”We’re partial to putting out large amounts of money where we won’t have to make another decision.”
55，我们偏爱把大量的金钱投放到那些不需要我们再做什么其他决策的地方。
(56)”Understanding how to be a good investor makes you a better business manager and vice versa.”
56，能理解投资的真髓也能让你成为一个好的企业管理者，反之亦然。
(57)”What’s fascinating . . .is that you could now have a business that might have been selling for $10 billion where the business itself could probably not have borrowed even $100 million. But the owners of that business, because its public, could borrow many billions of dollars on their little pieces of paper- because they had these market valuations. But as a private business, the company itself couldn’t borrow even 1/20th of what the individuals could borrow.”
57，有件事情很有意思：你可能拥有一家价值100亿美元的公司，而这家公司可能连1亿美元都借不到。但是，由于公司是上市公司，公司的大股东凭着手里的小纸片（股票）做担保却能借到好几十亿美元。但是如果公司不是上市的，它可能连那些大股东能借到的20分之一的钱都借不到。
(58)”I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest – sometimes not even the most diligent. But they are learning machines; they go to bed every night a little wiser than when they got up. And, boy, does that habit help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.”
58，我经常见到一些并不聪明的人成功，他们甚至也并不十分勤奋。但是他们都是一些热爱学的“学机器”；他们每天晚上睡觉的时候都比那天早上起床的时候稍微多了那么一点点智慧。伙计，如果你前面有很长的路要走的话，这可是大有裨益的啊。
(59)”The basic concept of value to a private owner and being motivated when you’re buying and selling securities by reference to intrinsic value instead of price momentum – I don’t think that will ever be outdated.”
59，不管是对于私有企业的企业主还是上市公司的股东，进行买卖时参考的标准应该是企业内在价值而不是过往成交的纪录，这是最基本的价值概念，而且我认为永远也不会过时。
(60)”Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.”
60，巴菲特和我不是因为成功预测了宏观经济并且依此下注才获得今天的成功的。
(61)”Well, the questioner came from Singapore which has perhaps the best economic record in the history of any developing economy and therefore he referred to 15% per annum as modest. It’s not modest–it’s arrogant. Only someone from Singapore would call it modest.”
61，提问者来自新加坡，新加坡可能是世界历史上成绩最辉煌的发展中经济，所以这位提问者才会把15%的增长率称作“保守”。但其实这不是“保守”，这是很狂妄的。只有新加坡来的人才敢把15%称作“保守”。
(62)”I don’t spend much time, regretting the past, once I’ve taken my lesson from it. I don’t dwell on it.”
62，我不会花太多时间追悔过去，一旦吸取了教训，我就不会再陷在里面了。
(63)”If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we’d have a pretty average record. It wasn’t hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounce on them with vigor.”
63，如果你从我们的投资决策里剔除掉最好的那15个，我们的表现就显得非常平庸了。（游戏的重点）不是非常多的动作而是非常大的耐心。你要坚守你的原则，当机会出现的时候，就大力出击。
(64)”We just throw some decisions into the ‘too hard’ file and go onto the others.”
我们会把一些决策议题扔进名字叫做“太难了”的档案柜，然后去看其他的议题。
(65)”Forgetting your mistakes is a terrible error if you are trying to improve your cognition.”
65，如果想提高你的认知能力，忘记过去犯过的错误是坚决不行的。
(66)”In the 1930s, there as a stretch here you could borrow more against the real estate than you could sell it for. I think that’s what’s going on in today’s private-equity world”
66，30年代的时候，靠房产抵押得到的贷款可以比房子的售价更多。这大概就是现在私募股权领域的情形。
(67)”Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.”
67，模仿一大堆人意味着接近他们的平均水平。
(68)”A lot of opportunities in life tend to last a short while, due to some temporary inefficiency… For each of us, really good investment opportunities aren’t going to come along too often and won’t last too long, so you’ve got to be ready to act and have a prepared mind.”
68，生命中的很多机遇都只会持续一小段时间，它们持续是因为（别人）暂时不便（攫取它）……对于我们每个人，机不可失时不再来，所以你最好随时预备好行动并且有足够的思想准备。
(69)”Everywhere there is a large commission, there is a high probability of a ripoff.”
69，有巨额佣金的地方常常就有骗局。
(70)”Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”
70，承认自己不懂某样东西意味着智慧的曙光即将来临。
(71)”Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it.”
71，即使你不喜欢现实，也要承认现实 --- 其实越是你不喜欢，你越应该承认现实。
(72)”We try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric.”
72，我们努力做到通过牢记常识而不是通过知晓尖端知识赚钱。
(73)?“Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you’re not going to make much different than a six percent return – even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.”
73，长期而言，一个公司股票的盈利很难比这个公司的盈利多。如果公司每年赚6%持续40年，你最后的年化回报也就是6%左右，即使你买的时候股票有很大的折扣。但反过来如果公司每年资产收益率达18%并且持续二三十年，即使你买的时候看起来很贵，他还是会给你带来惊喜。
(74)”Just as a man working with his tools should know its limitations, a man working with his cognitive apparatus must know its limitations.”
74，就像工人必须了解自己工具的局限性，用脑子吃饭的人也要知道自己脑子的局限性。
(75)”Many markets get down to two or three big competitors—or five or six. And in some of those markets, nobody makes any money to speak of. But in others, everybody does very well.? Over the years, we’ve tried to figure out why the competition in some markets gets sort of rational from the investor’s point of view so that the shareholders do well, and in other markets, there’s destructive competition that destroys shareholder wealth.? If it’s a pure commodity like airline seats, you can understand why no one makes any money. As we sit here, just think of what airlines have given to the world—safe travel, greater experience, time with your loved ones, you name it. Yet, the net amount of money that’s been made by the shareholders of airlines since Kitty Hawk, is now a negative figure—a substantial negative figure. Competition was so intense that, once it was unleashed by deregulation, it ravaged shareholder wealth in the airline business.? Yet, in other fields—like cereals, for example—almost all the big boys make out. If you’re some kind of a medium grade cereal maker, you might make 15% on your capital. And if you’re really good, you might make 40%. But why are cereals so profitable—despite the fact that it looks to me like they’re competing like crazy with promotions, coupons and everything else? I don’t fully understand it.? Obviously, there’s a brand identity factor in cereals that doesn’t exist in airlines. That must be the main factor that accounts for it.And maybe the cereal makers by and large have learned to be less crazy about fighting for market share—because if you get even one person who’s hell-bent on gaining market share…. For example, if I were Kellogg and I decided that I had to have 60% of the market, I think I could take most of the profit out of cereals. I’d ruin Kellogg in the process. But I think I could do it.”
“You must have the confidence to override people with more credentials than you whose cognition is impaired by incentive-caused bias or some similar psychological force that is obviously present. But there are also cases where you have to recognize that you have no wisdom to add – and that your best course is to trust some expert.”
75，许多市场最终会形成两到三个大竞争者 ---- 或者五到六个。其中有些市场里压根儿没有人能赚到什么钱。有些市场里每个竞争者都做得不错。多年以来，我们一直在研究，为什么有些市场里竞争比较理性，股东们获得的回报都不错，而有些市场里的竞争则让股东血本无归。我们举航空公司的例子来说吧，咱们现在坐在这里，可以想到航空公司们为世界作出的各种贡献 --- 安全的旅行、更好的体验、能够随时飞向你的爱人，等等。但是，这个行业自从莱特兄弟的时代以来，给股东们回报的利润是负的，而且是一个巨大的负数。这个市场里的竞争是如此激烈，以至于一旦放开监管，航空公司们就开始（大降价）来损害股东们的权益。然而，在另外一些行业里，比如麦片行业，几乎所有的竞争者都混得挺舒服。如果你是一家中型的麦片生产商，你大概能有15%的资产回报率。如果你的本事特别好，甚至能达到40%。但是为什么麦片这么挣钱呢？在我看来他们整天搞各种疯狂的营销、推广、优惠券来激烈竞争，竟然还这么挣钱。我不是很明白。显然，品牌效应的因素是麦片行业有而航空行业没有的。这可能是个主要因素。或者麦片生产商们有共识，认为谁都不可以那么疯狂地竞争 ---- 因为如果有一个二楞子视市场占有率如命根，比如说如果我是
家乐氏的老板然后我决定要抢占60%的市场占有率，我想我可以把这个市场的大部分利润都给弄没了。这个过程中我可能会把家乐氏给毁掉。但是我想我还是可以做到（占据市场以及消灭行业利润）。你应该有信心去颠覆那些比你资深的人，条件是他们的认知被动机导致的偏见蒙蔽了、或者被类似的心理因素明显影响了。但是在另外一些情况下，你应该认识到你也许没有什么新意可想 --- 你最好的选择就是相信这些领域中的专家。
(76)”In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables — like the discount warehouses of Costco.”
76，我们发现那些在生意中优胜的“系统”往往有些变量被近乎荒谬地最大化或者最小化 ---- 比如Costco的打折仓储店。
(77)”There are worse situations than drowning in cash and sitting, sitting, sitting. I remember when I wasn’t awash in cash — and I don’t want to go back.”
77，有些情况比坐拥大量现金无处可投更糟糕。我还记得当年缺钱的情景 --- 我可不想回到那个时候。
(78)”If you always tell people why, they’ll understand it better, they’ll consider it more important, and they’ll be more likely to comply.”
78，如果你（在发出指令和诉求的时候）总是告诉他们你的原因，他们就会更好地理解你的意图，并且觉得你的想法更重要，他们也就更愿意听你的。
(79)”Spend less than you make; always be saving something. Put it into a tax-deferred account. Over time, it will begin to amount to something. This is such a no-brainer.”
79，量入而出、时刻攒钱、把钱放到可以延期交税的账户里。时间长了，你就会攒出一笔财富了。这完全不需要动什么脑子。
(80)”I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”
80，我尽量远离那些不懂装懂的人。
阿帝1998
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