大盘波动的长线模式

深圳成指
年份	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
涨跌幅	139.77%	-3.64%	-42.88%	-22.34%	225.94%	30.06%	-29.52%	14.24%	41.05%	-30.03%	-17.02%	26.10%	-11.84%	-6.65%	132.17%	166.29%	-63.36%	111.24%	-9.06%	-28.42%	2.22%	-10.91%
振幅	207.79%	75.10%	59.64%	38.79%	364.54%	96.92%	34.27%	80.54%	50.52%	41.39%	27.82%	32.04%	34.23%	29.05%	133.22%	195.80%	77.07%	116.92%	36.43%	37.55%	33.15%	33.04%
正振幅	203.01%	48.20%	2.07%	15.89%	358.16%	89.71%	3.63%	66.02%	50.25%	7.13%	7.85%	28.92%	20.35%	13.50%	133.57%	194.87%	8.58%	117.36%	1.73%	6.22%	19.04%	10.32%
负振幅	-4.78%	-26.89%	-57.57%	-22.90%	-6.38%	-7.21%	-30.64%	-14.51%	-0.27%	-34.26%	-19.97%	-3.12%	-13.88%	-15.55%	0.35%	-0.93%	-68.49%	0.45%	-34.70%	-31.33%	-14.11%	-22.72%
向下拐点	-	1	-	-	-	2	-	-	3	-	-	-	4	-	-	5	-	-	-
向上拐点	-	-	-	1	-	-	2	-	-	-	3	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	预测出错	5

补2013年的数据。  2011年出了第五个向上拐点之后，2012是个好年份，虽然只涨了2.22%.  可能类似2003年。  如果2014年有个不错的跌幅而且震幅不大,那2015年就能有个挺好的预期了.


[/table]
深圳成指
年份 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010  2011 2012  2013
涨跌幅 139.77% -3.64% -42.88% -22.34% 225.94% 30.06% -29.52% 14.24% 41.05% -30.03% -17.02% 26.10% -11.84% -6.65% 132.17% 166.29% -63.36% 111.24% -9.06% -28.42% 2.22% -10.91%
振幅 207.79% 75.10% 59.64% 38.79% 364.54% 96.92% 34.27% 80.54% 50.52% 41.39% 27.82% 32.04% 34.23% 29.05% 133.22% 195.80% 77.07% 116.92% 36.43% 37.55% 33.15% 33.04%
正振幅 203.01% 48.20% 2.07% 15.89% 358.16% 89.71% 3.63% 66.02% 50.25% 7.13% 7.85% 28.92% 20.35% 13.50% 133.57% 194.87% 8.58% 117.36% 1.73% 6.22% 19.04% 10.32%
负振幅 -4.78% -26.89% -57.57% -22.90% -6.38% -7.21% -30.64% -14.51% -0.27% -34.26% -19.97% -3.12% -13.88% -15.55% 0.35% -0.93% -68.49% 0.45% -34.70% -31.33% -14.11% -22.72%
向下拐点 - 1 - - - 2 - - 3 - - - 4 - - 5 - - -
向上拐点 - - - 1 - - 2 - - - 3 - - 4 - - - - 预测出错 5

[/table]

回顾一下2012年:
开:8980  高:10616 低:7660 收:9116  上年收:8918
  正振幅=（当年最高点-上年收盘）/上年收盘 = +19.04%
  负振幅=（当年最低点-上年收盘）/上年收盘 = -14.1%
正振幅大于负振幅,在我的定义里2012年应算是好年了. 不过涨幅是来源于最后一个月. 忘了怎样贴表格,就懒得贴了.由于全流通和股指期货的缘故,大盘波动的时间变了,但节奏应该不会变,向上空间用满就跌,向下没空间了就涨. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  通过上表可以看到：
  1）连续2年正振幅大于50%，第二年都会是大跌市。（下拐点:93,97,00,07)
  2）而明年是好年份的条件是当年振幅不大，正振幅最好压缩到15%以内。而且当年或者近2年跌幅不能太少,象2010的跌幅应该排除.(上拐点:95,98,02,05)
  3）好年份的定义是正振幅大而且负振幅小，过去这些年的好年份都是2年一起来的。(96-97,99-00,03-04,06-07). 
  4)  要是真正的大向上拐点,除了近2-3年要跌得比较多之外,当年的正振幅跟负振幅的绝对值是很接近的,好象95年(正振幅15.89%/负振幅-22.90%),05年(正振幅13.5%/负振幅-15.55%),  
  
  结论：向上空间用满了（正振幅）就跌。向上空间被压缩得很厉害之后就涨。

2011年头对2011年做的预测不是很对,或者说非常的不对.深圳成指跌了28%.  但没道理说错了一次就不再继续,改点参数再来2012的.  

深圳成指
年份	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
涨跌幅	139.77%	-3.64%	-42.88%	-22.34%	225.94%	30.06%	-29.52%	14.24%	41.05%	-30.03%	-17.02%	26.10%	-11.84%	-6.65%	132.17%	166.29%	-63.36%	111.24%	-9.06%	-28.42%
振幅	207.79%	75.10%	59.64%	38.79%	364.54%	96.92%	34.27%	80.54%	50.52%	41.39%	27.82%	32.04%	34.23%	29.05%	133.22%	195.80%	77.07%	116.92%	36.43%	37.55%
正振幅	203.01%	48.20%	2.07%	15.89%	358.16%	89.71%	3.63%	66.02%	50.25%	7.13%	7.85%	28.92%	20.35%	13.50%	133.57%	194.87%	8.58%	117.36%	1.73%	6.22%
负振幅	-4.78%	-26.89%	-57.57%	-22.90%	-6.38%	-7.21%	-30.64%	-14.51%	-0.27%	-34.26%	-19.97%	-3.12%	-13.88%	-15.55%	0.35%	-0.93%	-68.49%	0.45%	-34.70%	-31.33%
向下拐点	-	1	-	-	-	2	-	-	3	-	-	-	4	-	-	5	-	-	-
向上拐点	-	-	-	1	-	-	2	-	-	-	3	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	预测出错	5

  *注：
  正振幅=（当年最高点-上年收盘）/上年收盘
  负振幅=（当年最低点-上年收盘）/上年收盘
  
 通过上表可以看到：
1）连续2年正振幅大于50%，第二年都会是大跌市。（下拐点:93,97,00,07)
2）而明年是好年份的条件是当年振幅不大，正振幅最好压缩到15%以内。而且当年或者近2年跌幅不能太少,象2010的跌幅应该排除.(上拐点:95,98,02,05)
3）好年份的定义是正振幅大而且负振幅小，过去这些年的好年份都是2年一起来的。(96-97,99-00,03-04,06-07). 

4)  要是真正的大向上拐点,除了近2-3年要跌得比较多之外,当年的正振幅跟负振幅的绝对值是很接近的,好象95年(正振幅15.89%/负振幅-22.90%),05年(正振幅13.5%/负振幅-15.55%),   

 结论：向上空间用满了（正振幅）就跌。向上空间被压缩得很厉害之后就涨。

2010年过去了,大环境或者资金面上看都有点紧. 但按前面的规律2011年应该是好年份. 但是会走1999年先跌再升,还是象03,04年不是很大的的正振幅,不是很确定,明年再看吧.

深圳成指
年份	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
涨跌幅	139.77%	-3.64%	-42.88%	-22.34%	225.94%	30.06%	-29.52%	14.24%	41.05%	-30.03%	-17.02%	26.10%	-11.84%	-6.65%	132.17%	166.29%	-63.36%	111.24%	-9.06%
振幅	207.79%	75.10%	59.64%	38.79%	364.54%	96.92%	34.27%	80.54%	50.52%	41.39%	27.82%	32.04%	34.23%	29.05%	133.22%	195.80%	77.07%	116.92%	36.43%
正振幅	203.01%	48.20%	2.07%	15.89%	358.16%	89.71%	3.63%	66.02%	50.25%	7.13%	7.85%	28.92%	20.35%	13.50%	133.57%	194.87%	8.58%	117.36%	1.73%
负振幅	-4.78%	-26.89%	-57.57%	-22.90%	-6.38%	-7.21%	-30.64%	-14.51%	-0.27%	-34.26%	-19.97%	-3.12%	-13.88%	-15.55%	0.35%	-0.93%	-68.49%	0.45%	-34.70%
向下拐点	-	1	-	-	-	2	-	-	3	-	-	-	4	-	-	5	-	-	-
向上拐点	-	-	-	1	-	-	2	-	-	-	3	-	-	4	-	-	-	-	5

双推支持

顶研究帖!

贴个长期波动图看看