上周美国财政部的三十年期国债的拍卖几乎流产!!!

美国长期国债要倒账？ [ mandman ] 于:2010-02-17 09:28:18

正当大家的注意力都集中在希腊（以及其它PIIGS）的债务危机的时候，媒体“忽视”一条很重要的新闻：

上周美国财政部的三十年期国债的拍卖几乎流产。

由于美国的国债一向是借新还旧，如果新的国债卖不出去，基本上就相当于倒账了。

具体是怎么一回事情？

一般而言，美国国债的拍卖会上有三类买主：承销商（Primary Dealers），直接购买人（Direct Buyers）和间接购买人（Indirect Buyers）。

承销商就是包销国债的十八家银行和证券商，他们被强制购买所有未能拍出的国债，以防止拍卖流产。

间接购买人是中国央行、日本央行这样的大买主，也是大家都看得到的真正买家，间接购买人的平均购买率为40％。

直接购买人就是所有直接从财政部购买国债的实体，包罗万象，所以直接购买人就是一个“Unknown”，其中也包括美联储和其它联邦政府实体。长期以来，直接购买人的购买率很低，因为国债的收益率很低，MarketWatch上面就说：一般为1％。

上周三（二月十日），美国财政部拍卖一百六十亿的三十年长期国债，结果如下：

点看全图

首先，申购比（bid-to-cover ratio）只有2.36，远低于一月份的2.68。

间接购买人的购买率只有28％，创了最低纪录；
直接购买人的购买率飙升到了24％，创了最高纪录；其中，美联储购买了11%。

结论就是：美国政府的财政赤字屡创新高，严重打击了外国投资机构对美债的信心。美国政府为了防止长期国债倒账，用美联储直接购买的方式，压低国债的收益率。

While most of the investment world focuses on the various "senior officials" (none of whom seem to have actual names or positions) commenting on whether Greece will or will not be bailed out/ receive an emergency loan/ offered moral support, etc, a far more significant debt story is emerging in the US.

On Wednesday the US offered $16 billion worth of 30-year Treasuries (US debt that will mature in 30 years). Before we get into the details of how much of a disaster the auction was we're going to do a brief review of how US debt issuances work.

US Debt is issued by the US Treasury. You can bid as much as 30 days in advance of a debt auction. When the auction actually takes place investors can buy directly (Direct Buyers) by buying Treasuries themselves OR they can buy indirectly (Indirect Buyers) by using a Primary Dealer: one of 18 Banks and Securities Brokers who do business directly with the US Federal Reserve Bank of NY and so HAVE to buy Treasuries at auctions to insure liquidity.

Direct buyers buy "off the radar" meaning you cannot track who the buyer is.

If an investor buys indirectly, he or she has to notify the Primary Dealer of his/her intentions in advance. This might sound a bit like showing your hand while playing poker. And it is. The only reason to go through a Primary Dealer (make an Indirect Purchase) is because you want to buy a sizable load of Treasuries (remember, Primary Dealers have a special relationship with the Fed and so can insure you get the amount you require).

Historically, Foreign Governments (China, Japan, etc) have made up the majority of Treasury purchases. Because of this, the Indirect Buyer purchases are typically thought to represent just how demand Foreign Governments have for US debt.

I realize this sounds complicated so simply think of it this way:



1) Direct Buyers: folks who buy straight from the Treasury, typically comprising a minor stake in US debt purchases

2) Indirect Buyers: folks who buy LARGE chunks of US debt, typically Foreign Governments

3) Primary Dealers: banks that HAVE to buy US debt to insure an auction doesn't fail. You don't want to see a lot of Primary Dealer purchases as this means that those who can CHOOSE to buy US debt DON'T want to.



On Wednesday, February 10 2010, the US Treasury issued $16 billion in 30-year Treasuries. Here are the buyer data points:



Buyer
Purchase Amount (%)

Primary Dealers
47%

Direct Buyers
24% (A RECORD)

Indirect Buyers
28%




First of all, we see Direct Buyers hit a RECORD percentage of purchases. This is extremely bizarre and somewhat disconcerting given that we have no way of know who these buyers are. For all we know they could be the Federal Reserve itself or other US-Government entities buying "off the radar."

Indeed, on that note we know that the US Federal Reserve accounted for 11% of the total purchases. Folks, you're not dealing with a healthy debt auction when the Fed accounts for 10% of purchases.

However, far, FAR more worrisome is the pathetic Indirect Buyer takedown: 28%. Historically this number has been more around 40% (Tyler at ZeroHedge notes that the average Indirect purchase of the last four long-term Treasury auctions was 39.9%). To see such a MASSIVE drop off in Indirect Buyers (40% down to 28%) is a MAJOR warning sign that Foreign Governments are no longer willing to buy long-term US debt.

This auction was a very small step away from a failed auction. To see Primary Dealers buying so much (remember they HAVE to buy it) and Indirect Buyers so little, only confirms what I've been saying for months, that the US is entering a Debt Spiral: a situation in which it must issue more and more debt (while rolling over trillions of old debt) at the very time that fewer and fewer investors are willing to lend to the US for any lengthy period of time (more than ten years).

Folks, forget Greece, the US has its own debt problems. And they're MAJOR. The fact that stocks RALLIED on this news tells you how disconnected stocks are from reality. The Debt Spiral has started and is now accelerating. It's only a matter of time before it becomes a full-fledged Crisis. And this one will make 2008 look like a cakewalk. If you're not already taking steps to protect yourself now, I strongly urge you to give my Private Wealth Advisory a try. We've already positioned our portfolio for the coming carnage. And five of our last six picks have been winners, despite a plunge in the S&P 500.