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这个我也不懂,反正从股价上和投资人反应上看来是这样的。
还请hayek 发表下意见
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为什么国有化了就没有投资价值呢?
美国历史上很多次萧条期,对一个重要企业,都是政府在最糟糕的局面接受,然后再经济复苏后转手给私人。
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aig/fnm/fre已经被国有化了
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FED把联邦利率压低在0再持续半年,美国银行业的内部修复可能会再超市场预期
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我觉得把联邦利率压在零,最终修复其实房地产行业。大量基于房产的衍生产品将从剧毒状态,回归到常态资产。
在这个意义上,我觉得诸如 aig、fre这样高危企业可能是最具备爆发力的品种。
另外,有一个比较困惑的问题就是,从美国人口的统计学角度看,美国股市可能会在一个较长的时期停滞不前。类似70年代的滞胀期。到底能复苏到什么程度还难以判断。
海兄把把投资标底 圈定在科技成长股的确是最佳应对策略。
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富国银行的季报一扫阴霾
再回首一月前,市场的恐慌和非理性就非常显然了
FED把联邦利率压低在0再持续半年,美国银行业的内部修复可能会再超市场预期
银行危机化解后,美国经济的复苏力度可能超出预期
一些较早前的举措正在发挥合力,推动复苏
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期待楼主不断来更新。
目前没有利好消息,又值Q1财报、各项经济数据出台之际,投资人选择规避风险,貌似要调整了
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[引用原文已无法访问]
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有深度,顶一个。sp500已经如LZ的预言,开展了一波不小的反弹。
目前正处于长线是否能继续上涨的重要阻力位置。估计会进入一个阶段的震荡盘整。
如能流畅突破890点,长期走强无虑。
个人分析,仅供参考。
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一个月之后房屋的相关数据会更靓丽:FED在宣布购买国债后按揭利率出现了50年未见的低水平;救助法案的真正实施。
2009年一季度经济是一个很重要的低点。尽管未来经济会出现波折,但金融体系的逐步修复,这很可能意味着sp500的666点成为未来数年的一个重要低点!
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The government reported that demand for big-ticket manufactured goods rose in February rather than fell as economists had predicted. Data on durable goods orders can be fickle but the surprise increase is still welcome news for an economy that until weeks ago seemed only capable of producing worsening stats.
Orders at U.S. factories for cars, airplanes, household appliances, furniture and other large goods rose 3.4 percent last month, rather than fell 2 percent as forecast. The increase was the biggest in 14 months and breaks a streak of six straight monthly drops. However, a large drop in orders in January was revised even lower.
It will take months of improving data before analysts can safely assert that the economy is on the mend. But many traders are simply anxious for any signs that the economy is at least halting its slide.
Economists' expectations have been so grim lately that recent reports on retail sales, housing starts and inflation have helped propel a two-week rally in stocks after the numbers weren't as bad as feared.
The gains early Wednesday follow a drop in the market Tuesday and a huge rally Monday that came as the government outlined a plan to help banks dispose of bad assets.
Traders will be looking for any further signs that they might have been too pessimistic. The government is expected to release a report at 10 a.m. EDT showing that sales of new homes fell 2.9 percent last month to a record low. Wall Street expects new home sales fell in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000 units from 309,000 units a month earlier.
先是新屋开工率超预期,接着是二手房交易量,二手房房价,现在是耐用品。。。老美经济一夜间好像见底了
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基本面分析,不能用来指导交易。历史数据统计结果,对市场未来走势,没有参考价值,市场价格如何行走,得看现在!