明年增长恐不及8%

Economists Trim Forecasts for China's 2008 Growth to Below 10%

By Li Yanping and Kevin Hamlin

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Economists trimmed forecasts for China's growth this year to below 10 percent after the country expanded at the slowest pace in five years in the third quarter.

China International Capital Corp. forecasts 9.7 percent growth, down from a previous 10 percent estimate. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s prediction is 9.6 percent (10.1 percent) and Merrill Lynch & Co. expects growth of 9.9 percent (10 percent). The estimates were given in notes e-mailed yesterday.

Slower growth in industrial output, exports and real-estate investment caused the world's fourth-biggest economy to cool for a fifth quarter, said Ha Jiming, a Hong Kong-based chief economist at CICC. The expansion of 9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier was the least since the severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, epidemic in 2003.

The economists forecast weaker growth in next year. Their estimates are 7.3 percent (CICC), 8.6 percent (Merrill) and 8.7 percent (JPMorgan).

Standard Chartered Bank Plc was already predicting growth of less than 10 percent for China this year. It cut its estimate to 9.6 percent from 9.9 percent. The bank forecast a 7.9 percent expansion in 2009.

UBS AG maintained its estimate of 9.6 percent growth in 2008 and an 8 percent expansion in 2009.

``With growth now clearly on a slowing path, we expect the government to roll out a combination of fiscal, monetary and sector/structural measures to mitigate the external shock and help to keep growth from falling sharply,'' Wang Tao, an economist at UBS AG in Beijing, wrote in a note.

On Oct. 19, China's cabinet announced plans to boost farmers' incomes, invest in infrastructure, cut taxes for exporters of clothing, textiles and machinery, and reduce property transaction fees, to stimulate the economy.