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有待观察，不过国内市场和离岸市场的套利越来越难做。
人民币长期还得升值，不过，随着美国大选的尘埃落定，共和党执政下的弱势美元或许将终结
欧元如果无法加息，前景灰暗
只是欧元下跌，中欧之间的贸易对中国企业，又是一个挥不去的烦恼
唉
左右为难阿
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中国汇市：人民币兑美元收升,整体呈弱势整理(更新版)
2008年 8月 19日 星期二 17:52
路透上海8月19日电---中国外汇交易中心人民币兑美元< CNY=CFXS>周二在询价系统收报6.8655元,较上日收盘价6.8710元上涨,并结束此前连续三日跌势.交易员称,虽然人民币兑美元中间价跳高,但并未获得市场的全面认可,使得人民币受惠有限,显示汇价仍然处于弱势整理之中.
以下为今日人民币兑美元最高价、最低价以及中间价SAEC:
最高价 最低价 中间价 上日中间价
--------------------------------------------------
6.8610 6.8796 6.8599 6.8665
上海一银行交易员称,"还是比较弱了,国际美元也在高位整理,观望的多,估计要到奥运後,才可能明朗."
他还表示,虽然今天人民币兑美元中间价跳高很多,但没有市场机构积极响应,毕竟奥运期间消息面平平,且国际美元现处高位,走势也不明朗,导致观望等待的气氛较浓.
北京时间17:30,美元兑人民币一年期NDF合约< CNY1YNDFOR=>报6.7090元,上日收盘价为6.7160元;外汇交易中心美元兑人民币一年期掉期贴水中间价报1,215点,相当于市场认为一年後人民币兑美元将达到6.7440元.
东京美元兑一篮子货币周二变动不大,全球经济放缓疑虑则带动金价和油价下滑.美元兑日圆< JPY=>较纽约尾盘下滑0.3%至109.79,脱离上周触及的七个月高点110.67.[ID:nCT0204535](完)
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近端走势跟贴即期价,远端升值预期已重回今年起点
2008年 8月 18日 星期一 17:00
路透香港8月18日电---海外无本金交割美元兑人民币远期报价< CNYNDFOR=>周一续升,交易商指出,NDF近端报价已与即期价格亦步亦趋,而六个月以上的报价与年初报价水平相当,反映出市场在美元转势的前提下,押注人民币升值的动力已减弱.
北京时间16:00,一个月期的NDF< CNY1MNDFOR=>报6.8724元,与即期价< CNY=CFXS>6.8743元水平相当;而一年期NDF< CNY1YNDFOR=>报6.7210元,该报价已回至今年初水平.而各期限NDF报价与
中国银行间市场的差价也不断缩小.
"即期价格是决定衍生品走势的关键,(人民币兑美元)差不多一个月都是往下走,再强烈的升值预期也要泄劲了.只有被动地跟着即期价格走."一家大型交易商称.
另有香港的一家日资银行交易员称,市场几乎确定美元将在未来一段时间走升,不少有实质贸易需求的美元买盘纷纷出手,希望在相对便宜的价位买一些远期美元,以锁定未来美元成本.该举措也推升了美元远期价格的走势.
美元兑欧元< EUR=>目前报1.4732,较此前六个月高点1.4645略有回落.市场普遍认为,欧元区经济面临衰退风险,将会有降息的可能.这一预期支撑美元继续走强.(完)
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路透纽约8月14日电---美国经济成长趋稳,油价下挫以及美国以外地区经济前景恶化令高盛放弃其对美元10年的看空立场.
在周四研究报告中,高盛称美元的长期跌势已告终,其价值被低估可能导致美国的国际收支平衡头寸显着改善.
"是时候对我们长期持有的看空美元立场说再见了,在过去约10年间,我们一直看空美元,偶尔有错,但多数时间是对的."高盛在研究报告中指出.
"美元估值和经济成长带动的改善已有一段时间,程度已到了可明显促进美元的中长期前景."
但高盛称,美元在近期可能仍面临一些挑战,比如市场部位调整、油价波动和美国消费者支出疲弱.
高盛目前预计欧元在三个月内将跌至1.45美元,之前预计为1.56美元.在未来12个月可能进一步跌至1.40美元.
美元/日圆< JPY=>,高盛预计在三个月内触及110日圆,原先预计为106日圆,一年内美元将升至114日圆.
其他货币中,高盛称更看好巴西雷亚尔< BRL=>和墨西哥比索< MXN=>.(完)
--翻译 李军;审校 利棣儿
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Goldman Sachs: US dollar has bottomed
Reuters | Friday, 15 August 2008
Stabilizing U.S. economic growth, falling oil prices and a deteriorating outlook outside the United States have led Goldman Sachs to abandon its ten-year bearish stance on the U.S. dollar.
In a research note on Thursday, the largest U.S. investment bank said the dollar's long-term downtrend has ended and its undervaluation could lead to a substantial improvement in the U.S. balance of payments position.
"It is time to say goodbye to our long-held dollar bearish stance. For about 10 years we have been negative on the dollar, occasionally wrong but mostly right," Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note.
"But now the valuation and growth-driven improvements that we have been observing for a while have reached the point where they notably improve the medium to long-term outlook for the dollar."
It added, however, the dollar could still face some challenges in the near term such as market positioning, volatility in oil prices and weaker U.S. consumer spending. But the "powerful improvements in the real trade balance suggest the dollar has bottomed." The bank expects capital inflows to start improving.
Goldman revised its forecasts for several U.S. dollar pairings. It now sees the euro falling to $1.45 in three months, compared with estimates of $1.56. The euro should drop further to $1.40 over the next 12 months.
On Thursday, the euro traded a near-six-month low at $1.4779, according to Reuters data. The dollar has gained more than 5 percent against the euro so far this month, reaching its highest since February.
On dollar/yen, the bank said it forecasts the pair hitting 110 yen in three months from its original estimate of 106. Over the course of one year, Goldman said the dollar should rise to 114 yen.
A big part of Goldman's change in stance on the dollar was the more widespread weakness in economies outside the United States, which has led to sizable interest rate differentials in the greenback's favor. Interest rate markets have priced in rate cuts for major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, which should diminish their currencies' appeal to global investors.
Aside from rate differentials, Goldman said the U.S. economy is finally adjusting favorably to an undervalued dollar.
"The impact of valuation has become much clearer and more powerful – increasing our confidence that strong, underlying forces will lead to continued improvement in dollar fundamentals in the next couple of years."
It added that a strong U.S. export performance and signs of growing inflows from mergers and acquisitions should clearly boost the dollar.
About other currencies, Goldman said it has become more upbeat on the outlook for the Brazilian real and Mexican peso.
"Certainly the growth story in Brazil and firm balance of payments surplus should allow the currency to shrug off the broader U.S. dollar strength," said Goldman.
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