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潜心学,顺便贴下对岸的美国对中国个股的analyst

08-03-02 15:34 2814次浏览
mecy
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在这里潜水多日,潜心学各位大牛的心经。这里环境很洁净,是个好地方。再次拜谢各位前辈。今日闲逛,偶见米国在推荐我大中华的几支个股,虽在国内买不到,也可以看看窥见外人对我们这个市场\对中国经济的态度。转贴过来仅供大家闲时一撇。

Three Chinese Firms Poised for Long-Term Success

Service firms could offer a smart way to ride China's economic boom.
Investors who follow international markets have found it impossible to ignore China in recent years; the country has grabbed headlines around the world with double-digit economic expansion rates, large-scale urban construction, and a rising influence on global trade. It's no surprise to us that more investors outside of China have started to look closely at opportunities that would enable them to participate in this boom.
Although China's manufacturing industry has attracted the most limelight, it is the service industry that has recently caught our attention. In this article, we outline the two key reasons why investors might find investing in this area an appealing option, and we discuss a handful of Chinese service firms that we like. Currently, none of these firms is a 5-star stock, which means our Morningstar analysts don't think these companies are screaming buys at current stock prices. But we think it's worthwhile to keep them on your radar screen, in case short-term concerns push these stocks to levels near our Consider Buying prices.
Chinese Economy Benefiting Service Providers
As the Chinese economy races ahead on all cylinders, Chinese consumers, especially those in the more-developed coastal areas, have seen their wages double and even triple along the way. Like everyone else, when their wallets start to bulge, these consumers are more willing to splurge a little bit, treating themselves and their loved ones to services such as leisure, travel, and entertainment that they could not have afforded before. This release of pent-up demand has created enormous opportunities for service providers, and those that serve such needs well have been rewarded with impressive revenue and profit growth.

Ctrip.com International (CTRP Sponsored by: CTRP)
Moat: Narrow | Price/Fair Value Estimate Ratio*: 1.12 | 2 Stars
Ctrip is the dominant player in the Chinese online travel market. The company differentiates itself by targeting midtier business and frequent leisure travelers, groups that are expanding rapidly but have been traditionally underserved in China. Morningstar analyst Iris Tan believes that impressive execution records, an extensive supplier network, and strong brand recognition should enable Ctrip to further gain from the rapid expansion of China's travel industry.
Home Inns & Hotels Management (HMIN Sponsored by: HMIN)
Moat: None | Price/Fair Value Estimate Ratio*: 0.95 | 3 Stars
Home Inns is an operator of Chinese economy hotels. Catering to middle-class travelers in China, the hotel chain provides comfortable, standardized rooms with amenities such as high-speed Internet access and business centers. The concept has been very successful; the firm's hotels are 95% occupied, and new properties are opening at a rapid rate. Although competition has been heating up, Morningstar analyst Jeremy Glaser thinks the Chinese market is big enough to accommodate several major hotel chains and that Home Inns will be one of them.
Home Inns & Hotels Management (HMI Sponsored by: HMIN)
Moat: None | Price/Fair Value Estimate Ratio*: 0.95 | 3 Stars
Home Inns is an operator of Chinese economy hotels. Catering to middle-class travelers in China, the hotel chain provides comfortable, standardized rooms with amenities such as high-speed Internet access and business centers. The concept has been very successful; the firm's hotels are 95% occupied, and new properties are opening at a rapid rate. Although competition has been heating up, Morningstar analyst Jeremy Glaser thinks the Chinese market is big enough to accommodate several major hotel chains and that Home Inns will be one of them.
Sina Corporation (SINA SINA)
Moat: Narrow | Price/Fair Value Estimate Ratio*: 0.82 | 3 Stars
Sina is one of the most influential Internet media companies in China because of its large user base and substantial Web traffic. The company earns about 70% of its revenue from online advertising, while the rest mainly comes from wireless value-added services. Having earned its reputation as the most attractive online brand advertising destination in China, Sina is well on its way for robust profit growth, according to Tan.
These are just a few examples of service providers that we believe have benefited from wage increases and lifestyle changes of Chinese consumers, and we expect more to emerge as wealth creation spreads to more inland and rural areas, where China has invested billions to foster local industries and create new jobs. As these firms have become indispensable for millions of Chinese seeking a more enjoyable life, their prospects should look attractive for years to come, in our opinion.
Yuan Appreciation Could Help Returns
It's no secret that the Chinese currency, the yuan, has been on the way up. Since the Chinese government depegged the currency against the U.S. dollar in 2005, the yuan has already gained 15%, and we think this upward trend should continue for some time.
We think China needs a stronger yuan to offset the rapid increase in commodity prices in order to tame inflation, which was at a high of 7.1% in January 2008. This was confirmed by a recent monetary report issued by China's central bank on its Web site, which said China will likely accelerate the yuan appreciation to help slow price increases.
Unlike manufactured goods that are traded globally, services are mostly local, so the revenue and profits of Chinese service providers are denominated in the yuan. If the yuan strengthens as we expect, profits from those firms will become more valuable when translated into U.S. dollars. This is how investments in such firms may yield extra returns for our investors.
There's no doubt that many risks and uncertainties still exist when investing in China, a country still transitioning into a vibrant market economy. However, we believe investors can uncover attractive opportunities by sticking to areas that stand to benefit from China's economic transformation for decades. For investors whose time horizon extends past the next quarter, we think Chinese service providers have the potential to deliver solid returns for patient, long-term investors.
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海水火焰

08-03-02 22:48

0
好象老美那上市的如家快捷酒店很好很强大

怎么那么好的股票不回国内呢 ?

终端消费+快速扩张

很想买点那个东东
小路

08-03-02 21:59

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不知道多少年后中国的股市才可象美国的那样
flying

08-03-02 17:32

0
楼主有空翻译一下吧
mecy

08-03-02 17:11

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好呀好呀,一起学,共同进步。
MUSK

08-03-02 17:04

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MECY好,我也转帖过外盘的报道,咱们一起搜集有用的资料,一起学,共同进步:)
另外兄有没有做美股啊?本坛有一高人,远大前程,对美股很有研究,只是最近没有看他谈论。

它山之石,可以攻玉!
mecy

08-03-02 16:41

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感谢MUSK赏脸啊,哈,本以为没人看哪。以后再转贴我会多搜集一下相关资料以供共享。至于分析,我觉得我火候还不够,但是倒是可以翻译一下,呵。

不过感觉老美好像很看好中国的消费服务业,尤其受惠于沿海经济发达地区人们收入增长的企业,相比较之下受他们关注。不知道是不是由于跟美国人根深蒂固的消费观念所致。
MUSK

08-03-02 16:23

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LZ要是不仅转帖,还能够就转帖中提到的个股适当点评、哪怕翻译一段,也好啊

虽然在美国上市的很多公司国内买不到,但是像YGE,就是与A股有关的,LZ不妨多转帖一些有一定行业相关的资料过来,方便大家学:)
天威

08-03-02 15:50

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我爱如家!
mecy

08-03-02 15:36

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文中提到的三支股分别是携程,Home Inns,新浪,都是在美国的股票。不好意思,占用版面了,呵。
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