看看人家老外分析的上证走势图

Chinese Stock Market, The Big Picture of Turbulent Waves

Long-term, intermediate-term, & short-term analysis of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

The Chinese stock market is not in a vacuum of its own. It is exposed to the environment with a growing risk of inflation in China and a growing risk of recession in the United States, which could be two major fundamental precursors for potential worldwide stagflation. One may think that the Chinese market is still bullish for a long term and just bearish for a short term. On the contrary, the charts here with a spectrum of timeframes suggest that the Shanghai Index currently is in a significant downtrend with a long-term bearish perspective, but it may have a potential counter-trend rally with a short-term bullish bias. Up-and-down is the nature of the stock markets; there are always bumps on the way to either direction. This is a very volatile market. Careful evaluation of investment/trading projections and portfolio exposures within proper timeframes or time horizons could be critical.

（意译，下同）上证指数的长期、中期与短期波浪分析

中国股票市场并非存在于真空之中，它面临着日见增长的国内通胀与美国经济衰退的风险，而这可能是全球范围内经济滞涨的两大主要前导因素。或许人们可以认为A股市场仍然处于长牛短熊之中，但恰恰相反，时间框架内的图谱显示，上证指数正处于明显的下行趋势和熊市前景之中，虽然它具有潜在的逆势反弹与短期牛市倾向。涨跌是市场的常态，总有逆向的波动存在于大趋势之中。这是一个动荡不定的市场，在一个恰当的时间周期之内，对投资标的、投资组合进行审慎估值，是至关重要的。

Chart 1. Long-term picture (monthly chart), comparison with historic world-class stock market bubbles
图一，长周期，上证月K线图与其他世界级的股票市场泡沫的比较

Chart 2. Intermediate-term picture (weekly chart), a potential BARR pattern
中周期周K线图，BARR模式
Chart 3. Intermediate-term picture (daily chart), a potential head-and-shoulders Pattern
中周期日线图，头肩顶模式

Chart 4. Short-term picture (daily chart), a potential CCI reversal pattern
短周期日线图，CCI转向指标
Chart 5. Short-term picture (daily chart), daily volatility
短周期日线图，日波动比率



Chart 1 is a monthly chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index in comparison with the Nikkei Index and the NASDAQ index. After the 1990 Nikkei Bubble and the 2000 NASDAQ Bubble, the Shanghai Index in 2007 formed another biggest stock market bubble in recent history. Both the Nikkei Index and the NASDAQ Index had more than 75% retracement from their bubble highs, and both indexes are still far below their all-time highs after the bubbles burst so many years. A tipycal landing zone for this kind of high flyers is in a range of about 70% retracement (plus/minus 15%). So far the Shanghai Index has had just 46% retracement from its spike high of October 2007. There is still more downside risk ahead of this index.

图一：上证指数月K线图与日经指数和纳斯达克指数的对比图。继1990年日经指数泡沫与2000年纳斯达克泡沫之后，上证指数在2007年形成了近期历史上另一个巨大的股市泡沫。日经与纳指均出现了自泡沫顶峰水平75%的回落，并且两个指数在其泡沫破灭这么多年之后，至今仍远远低于其历史高点。对于这样的泡沫，一个典型的指数着陆区间是自高点回落70%正负15%。迄今为止，上证指数仅从其2007年10月的高点下跌了46%，（因此）该指数仍存在不小的向下调整风险。