The Art of Speculation

The Art of Speculation

2017年初总舵主被判刑，主要罪行在内幕交易和操纵股价。再后来的庄股被罚，指控是操纵股价，这个也好理解。6月底ZJH罚没游资徐留胜应该是A股进程中的一个标志性事件。徐是典型的游资拉伸封板手法，也被ZJH认定为操纵价格，给大部分场内的游资/短线客敲了警钟。7月5日ZJH更是考古鞭尸重罚了13年前的证券从业人员炒股案。所有种类各种手法的游资投机行为，从总舵主被捕后，ZJH应该都了如指掌了。一些列动作，定点清除，都表面ZJH在有组织有目的性的打击投机，尤其那种纯粹的投机行为。

只不过我A股是阉割的市场，个股只能做多才能获利。散户/游资毕竟是助涨助跌的，过度投机，导致过度泡沫。我A股一向以换手大，波动大，投机大出名。而防范金融风险是今年和接下来一段时间的主基调，在A股健全之前，ZJH通过限制过度投机，降低波动性，没有飙涨，自然摔下来就会轻一点。

看过报告韩国/台湾的加入MSCI后，散户比例都大幅降低了。我们MSCI的加入估计也是个里程碑，感觉ZJH在下一盘，结合海外投资者，引导股市走向正规化。

纯感觉，投机是市场不可或缺的一部分，而很多时候也难分清楚投资和投机，，“投机就像山岳那么古老”，赶不尽杀不绝。无厘头，纯情绪，资金博弈拉涨停式的超短线交易是重点监管的对象。如果涨停板少了，自然其他形式的投机就会出现。逻辑型，趋势型，事件型的短线炒作以后应该多起来。以后不乏有像公募那样，合规的联合做庄，比如选择一个业绩股，趋势型做T。

这几天仔细研究老美市场的风格，储备知识，应对可能的短线转型，也借鉴下人家成熟市场投机是具体怎么搞的。
投机：
Speculation plays a key role in stock markets. The stock market and all its fluctuations are entirely based on millions of transactions that occur between buyers and sellers each day. Each of these buyers and sellers has different reasons for their activity, but all, at least a little bit, are based on speculation. Thus, speculation is not limited to speculative stocks—stocks with a high degree of risk.

Speculators play one of four primary roles in financial markets, along with hedgers, who engage in transactions to offset some other pre-existing risk, arbitrageurs who seek to profit from situations where fungible instruments trade at different prices in different market segments, and investors who seek profit through long-term ownership of an instrument‘s underlying attributes.

Speculators look for opportunities everywhere. They are ‘arbitrage seekers’. A real speculator is aware of how much risk he takes and his expectation of high reward. It is important to note that intelligent speculators are not gamblers. They are meticulous. They know the extent of the risk they take and follow strict methods and rules.

未完待续