guson于2007-01-28 17:59发表主帖：
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| | 锡与钨、锑、稀土被并称为中国的四大战略资源，属为数不多的中国可以具有定价能力的战略资源。锡业股份（000960）拥有的锡矿资源占中国的1/3强，全世界1/10强，本部锡年产能3.5万吨，郴州及新加坡1.5万吨，合计5万吨，近1500只A股中资源及产能均居世界第一的稀有品种。
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| 关于锡业股份2006年度及2007年度业绩预测的版本很多，目前券商研究所公开的预测为2006年度0.35--0.42元、2007年度0.75--1.05元，坊间流传的版本2006年度0.55--0.70元，根据2006年第4季度LME期锡价突破性大涨登上10000美元大关的表现，以及参考同地域的000807云铝股份第4季度业绩的暴增（2005年度0.26元，2006年前3季度0.26元，近期预增100%--150%，2006年度约0.52--0.65元，即第4季度有望达到0.26--0.49元），本人认为000960每股收益比2005年度的0.53元稍有增长，达到0.60元左右的可能性应是极大的（2006年中期0.06元，前3季度0.206元，第4季度0.40元）。
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| 锡镍为2006年度第4季度最强势的金属，也是2007年1月份最强势耀眼的金属，独立于铜铝锌金属，2007年度累创新高成为锡镍的常态。2006年度国内锡价与LME期锡价向上的大趋势相同，但不完全同步，涨幅稍为落后于期锡价，原因在于国内锡价仍然高于国际锡价。近日，期锡价突破12000美元再创历史新高，国内锡价也从人民币89000元左右突破性向上达到93000—95000元，国内外锡价已基本接轨，预期未来国内锡价与期锡价的关联度将加紧加大。
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| 锡业股份2007年度业绩与锡价仍然高度相关，粗略估计，锡价平均每涨1000美元，每股收益有望增厚0.50元，每股收益推测测如下：
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| 锡业股份的发展战略是向高附加值的锡材、锡化工等深加工转型，目前向下游产业的锡供给占锡总产量的15%，未来的目标是提高到50%。目前的锡材、锡化工的产品毛利率约30%左右，随着高技术含量的新项目的投产，毛利率将进一步提高。例如，作为锡行业深加工水平极限的集成电路BGA产品也已经投入市场，该产品的生产能力为400亿粒/月，价格高达4000~10000元/公斤，毛利率将高达50%以上，2007年至少实现盈亏平衡，2008年成为重大的利润增长点。
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| 有色板块的龙头驰宏锌锗（600497）股价已达78元，冲击100元已无悬念，正如茅台冲击100元抬高酒类股票股价水平一样，驰宏锌锗也将进一步打活有色板块，锡业股份具备驰宏第二的潜质！
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| 作为长期看好的稀缺战略资源行业下的身处锡消费大国、掌握全世界最多锡资源、冶炼技术最好、产业链最完整的世界级龙头公司，锡业股份在国内有色金属行业上市公司中的地位是独一无二的，理应享受远高于驰宏锌锗等普通有色股的溢价，在目前A股平均市盈率已高达32倍的大背景下，锡业股份2007动态市盈率达到20倍将是基本的。对比同属战略资源行业、总股本相当的厦门钨业（600549），目前的深加工能力暂优于锡业股份，但资源及行业地位远不及锡业股份，以1月27日计算的股价22.42元计算的2006年及2007年可能的市盈率分别为33倍、21倍（2006前3季度业绩为0.44元，长江证券预测其2006年、2007年业绩为0.68元、1.05元。
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| 锡业股份股价近与稀土高科（600111）接轨，市盈率再与厦门钨业（600549）接轨，股价向驰宏锌锗（600497）学习！
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| [ GUSON 20070128 ]
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guson于2007-03-01 12:29发表跟帖：
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bluescape：谢谢！我的分析判断也是有对有错的，所有观点都仅供参考，在论坛里，不要太相信某个人，否则成也是这个人败也是这个人。在股市里赚钱，需要好的投资理念，良好的心态，也需要运气，多交流吧。
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小贝于2007-03-01 12:09发表跟帖：
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上海现货(SMM)行情
品名 成交区间(元/吨) 涨跌 更新日期
1＃ 铜（Cu） 57700-57950 50 03月01日
Aoo 铝（Al） 19670-19700 -10 03月01日
1＃ 铅（Pb） 15000-15300 -100 03月01日
1＃ 锌（Zn） 30300-30400 -400 03月01日
0＃ 锌（Zn） 30400-30500 -400 03月01日
1＃ 锡（Sn） 102000-104000 1500 03月01日
1＃ 镍（Ni） 380000-383000 -2000 03月01日
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bluescape于2007-03-01 11:52发表跟帖：
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刚刚学会跟贴
请多关照
非常钦佩GUSON
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guson于2007-03-01 09:24发表跟帖：
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明月光：大师不敢当！在我的博客有股票池，仅供参考下，看看有无有感兴趣的
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明月光于2007-03-01 08:59发表跟帖：
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大师:我最崇拜的就是你,还有股票可买吗?
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明月光于2007-03-01 08:59发表跟帖：
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大师:我最崇拜的就是你,还有股票可买吗?
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柴进于2007-03-01 07:42发表跟帖：
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我的意思是希望国内报价跟LME报价接轨.不过0960不是领头羊喔...
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七无将于2007-03-01 00:13发表跟帖：
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103000
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-1+1于2007-02-28 23:27发表跟帖：
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有啥好自豪的,中国股市主导全球啊哈哈,笑笑罢了
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柴进于2007-02-28 17:54发表跟帖：
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This is the BBC's headline news for the 28th of Feb. I am proud of China. Apparently, China's slump in stocks market yesterday sparked big sell-off around the world. We are in the world stage, being watched by everybody.
What I am trying to say here is the domestic Tin price should be in line with the international price too ^_^
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World stock slump hits second day
Sydney's ASX index was not immune to the global bad news
A global stock sell-off has moved into a second day, after a wobble in China sparked fears of a big price correction and hit UK, Asian and European indexes.
The UK's FTSE 100 index shed 1.9% in early trading. That took declines in the past two sessions to 4% and knocked £65bn off the market's total value.
France's Cac 40 shed 1.5% and Germany's Dax lost 1.9%. Earlier, markets had dropped in Asia, Australia and India.
Investors are questioning the outlook for economic and earnings growth.
The falls come after stock prices and indexes have climbed to record levels in a number of key world markets.
After a flurry of activity at the start of trade, the FTSE 100 was trading 116.10 points lower at 6,170.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 share index closed down 515.8, or 2.9%, lower at 17,604.1, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng index fell 496.36, or 2.5%, to 19,716.5.
More declines?
The question facing many investors is how far and how long the correction will go on for, and whether or not the bull run that has driven stocks and indexes higher has now broken.
"I see it as a correction within a bull market," said James Hong, head of equity derivatives trading at Dresdner Kleinwort.
This sort of move by the market is a little worrying, and it looks like it has been caused by a build-up of concerns in recent days
Angus Campbell, Finspreads
"We were looking for some sort of correction overall. It is a little bit surprising to have it all happen at the same time."
Even if a market's upwards trend is not broken, a correction can still be significant, analysts said.
In May last year, the UK's FTSE 100 lost more than 9% as concerns about high oil prices and political global instability combined to impact on world markets.
The current two-day global stock sell-off was triggered by speculation that China's government would try to clamp down on illegal share trading and may impose a capital gains tax on stock market earnings.
Wide impact
China has been one of the main emerging markets for many investors, and its main stock index had more than doubled in value during the past year.
At the same time, key indexes in Asia such as Japan's Nikkei 225 were pushing to their highest levels in seven years.
If the US economy slows, then world markets will be hit hard
Analysts said that gains may have gone too high too fast, with some predicting that the correction may last a number of weeks rather than days.
"This sort of move by the market is a little worrying, and it looks like it has been caused by a build-up of concerns in recent days," said Angus Campbell, a trader at Finspreads.
"Memories of last May's correction have sent shivers through investors' spines as many market participants have used futures contracts to run for cover."
The worries hammered China's Shanghai index by nearly 9% on Tuesday, giving it its worst day in a decade.
The China wobble rippled out across Europe on Tuesday, and hit the US later in the day where it coupled with disappointing economic figures to push the Dow Jones 3.3% lower by the close of trading.
Asian markets then picked up on this negative sentiment, and by early Wednesday India's Sensex was some 3% lower.
Australia's main stock index shed as much as 3.5% and at one point was trading at a five-week low
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