詹姆斯·西蒙斯是世界上最富有的数学家之一。作为量化对冲基金文艺复兴科技公司和大奖章基金的创办者,西蒙斯有着“量化革命先驱”的美名,他不但征服了华尔街,也为自己积累了巨额财富。自1988年成立以来,大奖章拥有投资史上最棒的长期表现,平均年化收益率高达62.9%,费后年化收益达到37.2%。
1.“Models can lower your risk…. It reduces the daily aggravation.” With old-fashioned stock picking: “One day you feel like a hero. The next day you feel like a goat. Either way, most of the time it’s just luck.” “We don’t override the models.”
模型可以降低你的风险......它会降低每日的恶化。而老式的选股策略:"有一天你感觉像个英雄。第二天你感觉像一只山羊。换种方式说,大多数情况下它是只是运气。"我们并不优于模型"。
2.“Certain price patterns are nonrandom and will lead to a predictive effect.”
某些价格形态并非随机,而会有对预测的影响。
3.“Efficient market theory is correct in that there are no gross inefficiencies, but we look at anomalies that may be small in size and brief in time.”
有效市场理论在不严重低效的市场中是正确的,但我们寻找的是短期、微小的异常现象。
4.“Great people. Great infrastructure.Open environment. Get everyone compensated roughly based on the overall performance… That made a lot of money.”
牛逼的人;牛逼的设施;开放的环境。让每个人基于整体表现获得大致报酬...这能够生产很多钱。
5. “Luck, is largely responsible for my reputation for genius. I don’t walk into the office in the morning and say, ‘Am I smart today?’ I walk in and wonder, ‘Am I lucky today?’”
很大程度上运气是我有天才名誉的原因。在早上我不会走进办公室说“今天我聪明吗?”,而是说,“今天我幸运吗?”
6. “We have three criteria. If it’s publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it.”
我们有三个标准。如果它公开交易,有流动性并且服从模型,我们就交易它。
7. “We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random. Our scheme is to analyze data and markets to test for statistical significance and consistency over time. Once we find one, we test it for statistical significance and consistency over time. After we determine its validity, weask, ‘Does this correspond to some aspect of behavior that seems reasonable?’”
我们通过历史数据搜寻不被认为是随机变动的异常现象。我们的目的是要随着时间变化分析数据和市场做统计学意义和一致性测试。一旦我们找到一个,我们会随着时间推移测试它的一致性和统计学意义。我们确定它的有效性后,会问,“这符合某些方面似乎合理的行为吗?
8. “Trend-following is not such a good model. It’s simply eroded.” Things change and being able to adjust is what made Mr. Simons so successful. “Statistic predictor signals erode over the next several years; it can be five years or 10 years. You have to keep coming up with new things because the market is against us. If you don’t keep getting better, you’re going to do worse.”
趋势跟踪不是一个好的模型。它只是被简单地被冲刷了。"顺应事物变化和能够进行调整是让西蒙斯先生如此成功的原因。"在未来五到十年统计预测信号将削弱。你要不断推出新的东西因为市场是对我们不利。如果你不保持越来越好,你只会更糟糕.
9. “We don’t start with models. We start with data. We don’t have any preconceived notions. We look for things that can be replicated thousands of times. A trouble with convergence trading is that you don’t have a time scale. You say that eventually things will come together.Well, when is eventually?”
我们不要从模型开始。我们要从数据开始。我们没有任何先入为主的观念。我们寻找那些可以重复数千次的东西。收敛性交易的问题是,你没有时间尺度。你说最终都会收敛。好的,那何时是最终呢?
10. “Once in a while the phenomena we exploit are particularly present. We like a reasonable amount of volatility. In our business we want some action.” “Tumult is usually good for us. We don’t have credit lines of any significance. We don’t do a lot of leveraged-type financing.”
有时我们利用的现象是特殊存在的。我们喜欢合理的波动性。在我们的工作中我们希望一些行动。"波动通常对我们有好处。我们没有任何意义的信贷额度。我们不做大量的杠杆型融资。
11. “How we do it isn’t any more mysterious than how a great fundamental investor does it. In some ways it is less mysterious because what we do can be programmed.”
我们如何做它不比其他大量的基本面投资者神秘。某种程度上不那么神秘正是因为我们做什么都可以进行编程。
12. “Academics has its charms, but it doesn’t have enough charms that I regret leaving that field.” “Be guided by beauty. Everything I’ve done has had an aesthetic component to me. Building acompany trading bonds, what’s aesthetic? … If you’re the first one to do it right, it’s a terrific feeling and a beautiful thing to do something right,like solving a math problem.”
学术界有着独特的魅力,但它没有足够的魅力让我后悔离开那领域。"遵循美。我所做的一切对我而言都是审美的组成部分。建立交易债券的公司,这是美?…如果你是第一个这样做的,做正确的事情是一种很棒的感觉和美丽的东西,就像解决数学问题。
13. "We look for people who have demonstrated the ability to do first-class research. First and foremost, we look for people capable of doing good science, on the research side, or theyare excellent computer scientists in architecting good programs. We have veryhigh standards and it works. "
我们寻找那些有能力做一流研究的人。首先,我们寻找在有能力做好某方面研究的人,或者他们是在设计好程序方面的优秀计算机专家。我们有非常高的标准并让它工作。